The Real IRA on the mainland

Someone asked me a question on one of my earlier posts as to what my thoughts were on the Northern Ireland situation concerning concerning the Real IRA (RIRA)so I have put a few thoughts together.  

First of all, let us start with labels; although we now refer to the RIRA and other republican terror groups as dissidents, they don’t like this label.  They see themselves as loyal to the cause of a united Ireland and senior republican figures such as Jerry Adams and Martin McGuinness – in the eyes of the RIRA - are the dissidents by virtue of the fact they appear to have given up on achieving the ultimate goal of uniting the north and the south. 

The recent raising of the alert state leads to the assumption that something directly associated with the RIRA could happen in the near future.  Even though this Irish dissident alert remains lower than the risk of an Islamic attack, the fact that it was made public (for the first time) is puzzling. 

How ready is the Real IRA to launch any significant attack outside of Northern Ireland?  They have proved that they can maintain a low level and relatively low impact campaign within the six northern counties but a switch to the mainland is something else. 

So what is their capability? 

Whatever intelligence the government received to raise the alert state, I feel it is unlikely that the Real IRA possess the means to have anywhere near the same effect as republicans did during the time of the troubles. 

However, they must now have a critical mass large enough to be classed as an organisation and this in itself raises the risk significantly.  They probably also have a quantity of Semtex as well as a willingness to hit the mainland and a belief that they can succeed.  If they have learned anything from the Provisional IRA, they will realise that the most successful Republican terrorist bombings in Britain have been against financial targets as opposed to just aiming to kill people.  I believe that this is their more likely type of target. 

Whatever the reason for the rise in the alert state, one thing is certain, Republicans are getting restless.  As the island’s troubled history becomes more a thing of the past their cause becomes increasingly difficult.  On both sides of the divide, the people of Northern Ireland are seeing their children living in peace for the first time in decades.  Why would they want to return to the days of violence and intimidation.  And for this reason, the Real IRA can see the prospects of a united Ireland moving further away.  They feel they must up their game if they are to turn this around.

Ecrivain Man