Trident’s Strident Step Back?

Because the £20 billion cost for the Trident nuclear deterrent will now come out of the MoD’s budget and not, as previously thought, from the Treasury, I suspect that pre-election promises of implementing Trident may come under yet more pressure within the coalition ranks. Let’s not forget that even before the question of which department has to pay for it cropped up, the LibDems were against having a new nuclear deterrent.

The fact that Dr Liam Fox and his team are already under enormous pressure to make savings within the Ministry of Defence without effectively having to find an additional £20 billion, makes the anticipation of the findings of the ongoing Security and Defence Review in the MoD and Whitehall more fascinating yet. Of course, the key questions which must be asked in the review are; what are the key threats to the United Kingdom both now and in the future and which courses of action will best keep us safe?

So what can we do without? Would an upgraded nuclear deterrent be at the expense of new naval vessels, fighter aircraft and soldiers on the ground? This is very possible. The planned building of new aircraft carriers would most likely be halted, there is already talk of grounding Tornadoes and of course there are ongoing questions surrounding the Eurofighter project. I’m sure equally savage cuts would hit the army. Yet this type of equipment is exactly what we need right now (although I accept the Eurofighter was designed to combat Russian MiGs). The warfare we face today requires conventional, mobile, well equipped armed forces with an ability to adapt to changing situations. It has taken a war in Iraq and an ongoing war in Afghanistan to achieve this but the UK's armed forces are just about there. This conventional modus operandi should be reflected in the latest round of defence spending.

In addition, I feel that Security and Defence Reviews should be conducted more often to reflect the dynamic face of international conflict (the last review was in the late 1990s) as well as trying to predict through long term intelligence assessments the type of threats we will face in the future. A nuclear missile launched from a Trident submarine is not required in Helmand Province or on the streets of Basra. On the other hand, should, ten years from now, we once again find ourselves in a Cold War, then the argument changes.

Ecrivain Man